Danny Ainge, Please Trade Kyrie Irving: The State of the Boston Celtics

As I write, it’s the morning of February 2, 2019. The Celtics beat an undermanned Knicks team last night 113–99.

A lot went down yesterday (1 day after the Knicks traded Porzingis). Kyrie commented on his future in Boston: “At the end of the day, I’m going to do what’s best for my career. I spent the last eight years trying to do what everyone else wanted me to do — managers, other personnel — and I don’t owe anybody shit.” And, Anthony Davis’ father commented on his son’s future: “I would never want my son to play for Boston after what they done to Isaiah Thomas. No loyalty. Guy gives his heart and soul and they traded him.”

“The Plan” isn’t going to happen.

Based on my observations, I would say that there’s a 50% chance Kyrie re-signs with Boston. And, there’s maybe a 20% chance (and, that’s generous) that Boston trades for and extends AD. I put the chances that “The Plan” happens at about 10%.

A 10%-Plan isn’t a good plan.

So, what’s the Backup Plan?

The modern NBA offense is predicated on having big men that can pass and shoot 3s. That’s why players like Al Horford are so valuable. At the start of the 2019–20 season, Horford will be 33. Al is still very good, but his performance has seen a slight dip this year.

If the Celtics don’t get AD (even if Kyrie does stay), they need to figure out a Horford succession plan.

The following figures into my thought process…

If the Celtics re-sign Kyrie, they’re going to be well in the luxury tax. That means that players like Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, and Daniel Theis are gone.

I know this is controversial one… the Celtics are not definitively better with Kyrie Irving. Last year’s team was a crappy 4th quarter away from going to the NBA Finals. Some folks forget, in addition to being without Kyrie during the playoffs, Marcus Smart missed time, Jaylen Brown missed time, they lost Theis and Shane Larkin for the year. They started Semi Ojeleye against the Bucks. They were totally undermanned and almost made it to the Finals.

Individually, Kyrie is a lot of fun to watch, but the team has not been fun to watch this year. On some nights, it’s been torture. Do I blame Kyrie for this? No. But, I will say that the Celtics are slightly more fun to watch without Kyrie. I don’t know if it’s an “underdog” thing, or whether the ball movement is better, they’re just more fun to watch.

I don’t want to trade away Jayson Tatum. He’s guaranteed to be a future All-Star and 25 ppg player. He’s turning just 21 in a few weeks.

Terry Rozier has been very good as a starter, but he’s is too inconsistent to be the starting point guard on a championship team.

Jaylen Brown will never be an All-Star, but he’s still a very good player.

The Celtics would have been screwed this year without Marcus Morris.

Marcus Smart has figured out who he is as a player. He’s the heart of the Celtics. He’s improved his shot. He’s a very good passer and has a great chance of maintaining a very respectable 37% 3-point percentage. I don’t want to trade away Smart.

I don’t know that we’ll ever see Utah Gordon Hayward again. But, I do think we will see a 16/6/5 Hayward by the beginning of 2019–20 at the latest.

One under-analyzed aspect of this year’s team is that Kyrie and Hayward don’t mesh as well as many hoped. I would prefer to see Kyrie more off-the-ball. When Kyrie has the ball, many of the players stand around and watch. When Kyrie and Hayward are in the game together, they’d maximize their joint-effectiveness if Hayward was playing the role of poor-man’s LeBron point forward with Kyrie playing the 2. Right now, when playing together, Hayward floats to the corner and gets lost in the offense. This makes Hayward’s current struggles look even worse.

The Kings pick is going to be around #13.

There’s a 50% chance that the Clippers pick conveys this year. If it does, it will be around #15.

The Memphis pick is unlikely to convey this year. It’s top-8 protected.

The Celtics still have their own pick which will be around #25.

If Al Horford does not exercise his option next year, that would almost guarantee the Smart be included in any AD trade (for salary-matching purposes). If Horford does exercise his option, then he is more likely to be a player included in an AD trade. I can’t imagine Horford wants any part of spending 2019–20 in New Orleans.

There is no guarantee that a Kyrie/AD team minus some combination of Tatum, Horford, Smart, Brown, plus the Kings pick and the Memphis pick will win an NBA championship. For cap reasons, I’m considering Morris, Rozier and Theis as 100% gone on any Kyrie/AD team. The core of any Kyrie/AD team would likely be either Kyrie/AD/Smart/Hayward OR Kyrie/AD/Horford/Hayward. Any Kyrie/AD team will be miles into the luxury tax.

Lastly, the Celtics are not going to win the NBA Championship this year. They’ll likely get the 3 or 4 seed in the East. They’ll be fortunate to get out of the 2nd round. They’re worse than they were last year.

So, what should the Celtics do? What’s the Backup Plan?

To recap. They’re not necessarily better with Kyrie. They’re not necessarily more fun to watch with Kyrie. They’re not getting Anthony Davis. And, they need a succession plan for Horford.

If I were the Celtics, I would attempt to move Kyrie and acquire a center who could allow Horford to move to the 4 in the short term, and eventually replace Horford.

The player I want is Nikola Vucevic. He’s a better version of Horford. He’s a free agent this summer (just like Kyrie), but his price tag would be closer to 25M/year instead of Kyrie’s high 30s #. Vucevic has been a monster this year on both offense and defense. He’s a very good passer, and he can shoot 3s. He’s the perfect Horford 2.0.

I propose a trade like the following. The Celtics would also send some combination of their 2019 #1 and #2 picks to the Heat and Magic.

Why the Heat for Kyrie? The Heat are screwed cap-wise through 2020, and they’re not very good right now either. The Heat are currently, at best, a #7 seed in the East. Miami is one place where Kyrie would consider signing/re-signing (joining Boston, NY, Brooklyn, LAC, LAL). A Kyrie-led Heat team would be a 5/6 seed next year, and would have the flexibility to sign another max player in 2021. They’d also have a better team for this year’s playoffs.

If Kyrie were to walk after this year, the loss would be small. Miami would lose Winslow and Olynyk for the opportunity to re-sign Kyrie.

Orlando would consider this deal because they’re not likely to re-sign Vucevic (or, Ross). They’ve always liked Rozier. Winslow is a good player for a fair price, and Olynyk is a valuable role player. All 3 of these players fit nicely with Orlando’s remaining core of Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Jonathan Isaac and Mo Bamba. They’d have a top-8 of Gordon, Fournier, Rozier, Winslow, Isaac, Olynyk, Bamba, plus their high-#1 pick this year.

I would consider Ross to be a significant upgrade over Rozier for this year’s playoff push.

The Celtics new starting 5 would be Vucevic, Horford, Tatum, Brown and Smart. Marcus Morris would move to the bench joining Hayward, Ross, and Baynes. Theis and backup point guard Brad Wanamaker would be the 9th and 10th players. This team is better than the current team, and they match up better against the Bucks, Raptors and Sixers.

Next year, they could re-sign Vucevic for 10M less than they’d pay Kyrie. They keep the Kings, Memphis and Clippers picks. Again, only the Kings pick is guaranteed to convey this off-season. They have the option of re-signing either Morris or Terrance Ross. And, they might still be able to keep Theis.

This team would be guaranteed to be a championship contender for the foreseeable future. They’d have a clear succession plan. And, they’d be fun to watch.